VAM's increasing role along with AI in the Logistic and Supply Chain Management in the current Business world.

 

The Evolving Role of the Vogel Approximation Method in Modern Logistics and Supply Chain Management.

Business now becomes highly dynamic in the modern world; such requires there to be logistics and supply chain management to ensure running of good operations. Optimization techniques such as the Vogel Approximation Method come into play when there are cost-effective and timely solutions being sought after by more organizations. While superior algorithms and AI-based technologies have really pushed ahead, it still becomes an acceptable tool for optimal cost reduction in transportation for many small- and medium-sized operations with short solution requirements.

Vogel Approximation Method: The oldie but the goodie.
VAM is the old algorithm in which one finds an initial feasible solution nearly approximating to minimum transportation cost and is indeed a classical transportation algorithm that approximates the minimum transportation cost. Here, first it selects the largest penalties-the cost differences between the two lowest-cost routes-and allocates shipments accordingly. This provides more efficiency compared with some of the simpler methods, like Northwest Corner Rule or Least Cost Method.

Due to its simplicity and the ease of its application, VAM has been widely used in the sphere of logistics for decades. It provides an excellent "good enough" starting point for further optimization using methods like MODI. Its ability to give a quick near-optimal solution makes it suitable for businesses that require practical and fast decision making.

Emergence of Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Algorithms in Supply Chain Management
The emergence of AI, ML, and complex algorithms has changed the landscape of the logistics industry much in recent times. LLMs and AI-driven decision-making systems allow supply chains to be more data-driven than ever. Advanced models enable sophisticated models for forecasting and real-time route optimization.

For instance, modern AI-driven models enable better forecasts of changes in weather patterns or geopolitical situations or supply chain stoppages and their shifting plan for transportation. These models can evaluate enormous amounts of data in a relatively short time, and this makes it possible to make responses that might be more accurate and flexible to complex logistics challenges than with conventional methods such as VAM.

Hybrid Models: Using AI with VAM
Even with advanced tools developed, VAM is still relevant in today's landscape. Hybrid forms are some of the rising trends. Hybrid forms use VAM as a starting platform for performing complex AI algorithms. Here, VAM generates an initial solution, which AI later builds on to attain near optimum or optimum results.

The truth is that integrating these two really comes in handy in the following scenarios:

Small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs): Most SMEs would not hold the reserves for complex AI systems, but they might still be able to exploit VAM as a preliminary framework.
Preliminary solutions: AI can fine-tune the solution once VAM has provided a workable start, permitting real-time adjustments based upon new data or changing circumstances.

AI in Supply Chain LCM:

Supply chain life cycle management with AI integration will undoubtedly improve the visibility and performance of the supply chain in different stages from sourcing to delivery. VAM alongside AI offers more effective inventory management, provides better forecast on demand and defines new areas to reduce costs. Acting as a base foundation, with AI refining the results, the hybrid will achieve greatness and produce more agile resilient supply chains.

The large logistics firms, for instance, FedEx, Lufthansa, and Blue Dart among others, are already practicing these techniques to achieve greater efficiency and compete better. Their acceptance of both traditional optimization techniques such as VAM and AI-driven technological tools ensures them in completely changing the landscape of logistics.

Future Prospects:

The more advanced the algorithms will be and the more elaborative they will be on traditional techniques like VAM. Traditional methods, like VAM, are here to stay in niche areas where speed, simplicity, and cost-effectiveness are critical. By and large, AI will take center stage in SCM in the future.

Thus, in the future, AI-based logistics systems would be adaptive algorithms and continually acquire and adapt to current data while allowing real-time adjustment of supply chain operations. However, it is through this adaptability of VAM and bridge for conventional optimization methods to the new frontiers of AI advancements that gives it much value.

It is only by integrating tried and proven methods like VAM, along with AI-facilitated innovations, that business companies can achieve the pinnacle of logistics performance together with increased efficiency and resilience in operations within a dramatically shifting environment. In the context of combining VAM and AI, there is a robust model of success awaiting the logistics industry-an excellent future.

The shipping companies, such as FedEx, Lufthansa,Blue Dart and others, continue to explore and refine these hybrid approaches. As long as the industry has companies like FedEx and others, it will grow more efficient and adaptable in the years ahead.

Manufacturing: A Blueprint for the Future of India. India’s Manufacturing Dream:

 

A New Frontier for Global Competitiveness India is at a pivotal moment in its economic journey. In recent decades, it has become the preferred destination for back-end services, emerging as a global leader in information technology (IT), business process outsourcing (BPO), and various service-oriented sectors. The country’s strength in the service industry is clear, playing a crucial role in GDP growth, job creation, and international recognition. However, despite its achievements in services, India’s manufacturing sector holds vast untapped potential. To truly become a global economic superpower, India must now focus on excelling in manufacturing, especially in advanced manufacturing that can elevate the nation within global value chains. The Current State of India's Manufacturing Sector While India’s manufacturing sector is on the rise, it only accounts for about 17-18% of the country’s GDP—a figure that falls short compared to China's 27% and even smaller nations like Vietnam, where manufacturing plays a significant role in their economies. Although India has found success in certain industries such as automobiles, textiles, and pharmaceuticals, it still trails in high-tech manufacturing—an area where China has excelled. The insufficient emphasis on producing high-value goods like semiconductors, advanced electronics, and aerospace technology represents a critical gap that must be addressed for India to position itself as a global manufacturing leader.

Bande Bharat: A Testimony to India's "Make in India" Dream
the Government of India launched its flagship program, "Make in India", in 2014 with the intention of transforming the country into a world manufacturing hub. Perhaps one of the most impressive results of this ambitious initiative is the shining example of Indian engineering and innovation in self-reliance, the Bande Bharat Express. One of the fastest, sofisticated, and well-designed at world-class standards,a small hall mark of Indian engineering , the Bande Bharat Express, formerly known as Train 18, marks a giant step forward in efforts to modernize India's rail network with minimal dependence on imported components.
Essentially, Bande Bharat is a high-speed, semi-bullet train that represents the dream of "Make in India." Designed and manufactured by Indian Railways' Integral Coach Factory at Chennai, this train represents indigenous manufacturing benchmarks in the Railway sector. The success of Bande Bharat signifies more than a transportation achievement; it signals to the world that India can design, develop, and manufacture with own R & D to produce  world-class products out of its own resources.2

Features and Effect of Bande Bharat Express
The Bande Bharat Express is fully technologically advanced and has several special features that distinguish this train in India. First of all, it is recognized to be India's first semi-high-speed train, which will be able to reach a speed of 180 km/h. To travel through major cities, the time taken is, therefore greatly reduced. It sports latest amenities such as fully air-conditioned coaches, onboard free Wi-Fi, ergonomic seating, GPS-based passenger information systems, and bio-vacuum toilets. Furthermore, the train also features an energy-efficient design which utilizes the system for the regenerative braking while giving it a greener footprint.
Another distinctive feature of the Bande Bharat is that it was conceptualized and manufactured completely within the country, thereby saving on the cost of production compared to other trains. Technical know-how too is wholly developed within Indian borders as well, a wonderful reflection of the actual intent of "Make in India": to stimulate national production while reducing dependence on imported technology. Building such structures within the country and laying the blueprint of train design initiatives will be opening the doors to employment opportunities, technical skill development, and preparation for more sophisticated future technologies.3
Success of Bande Bharat also opens up the doors for exporting railway technology from India to other countries. Countries in Africa, Latin America and South East Asia are already keen on train technologies that India had developed on its own. Hence the economic future of this nation can be easily foreseen and so is the future of such initiatives like Bande Bharat Express.
ISRO and the Success Story of Chandrayaan: India's Space Odyssey
Another shining example of Indian innovation and self-reliance in the field of space is the efforts of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) that run the Chandrayaan missions. Chandrayaan missions made India an elite group of nations that are capable of performing space missions with much complexity. The triumph by Chandrayaan-3 has illustrated and pronounced that India has a significant place in the space technology and is on par with any nation at global levels.4

Just like Bande Bharat, the Chandrayaan missions themselves are a testament to the "Make in India" vision. ISRO's journey that began in the early 2000s with Chandrayaan-1- the first Indian mission to Moon released in 2008. Chandrayaan-1 had the main purpose of finding out water ice on the lunar surface, which it did so well, thus marking a big win in the extra space exploration milestone. With Chandrayaan-1, India had marked a foundation stone for future lunar missions to prove that India was not only competent to perform successful space missions but also contribute valuable scientific knowledge to the global community.
Chandrayaan-2: A Leap Forward
In 2019, ISRO moved on with Chandrayaan-2, a leap forward comparison. This mission was planned for an expedition to the south pole of the Moon, an area which has not even been fully explored till date. Although the Chandrayaan-2 orbiter has entered lunar orbit and continues to send valuable data to Earth, the lander, Vikram, sent by the mission malfunctioned during descent and crash-landed on the lunar surface. Partial success of Chandrayaan-2 has become the golden celebration for the country as the orbiter is still sending crucial data regarding the lunar surface, atmosphere, and mineral composition.5
Chandrayaan-3: India's Landmark Achievement
ISRO made the largest achievement in 2023 Chandrayaan-3. Since it was a follow-up of Chandrayaan-2 mission and had objectives to land its rover at the south pole of the moon. In that process, the ISRO learned technical troubles faced by Chandrayaan-2 and worked out to improve the design and functionality of the lander. This time, the mission was complete success with the lander Vikram safely touching down on the lunar surface and the rover Pragyan deployed to roam around the moon.
Chandrayaan 3 made India the first country to go to land near the south pole of the Moon because of its interesting scientific potential for water ice and other minerals. A successful mission did not only boost Indian space ambitions but also reaffirmed the country's position at the global leadership in space exploration. Through such complex lunar missions at an insignificant fraction of what other spacefaring countries pay, India has demonstrated the resultant ability to produce world-class results in space technology using homegrown solutions.6
Impact of Chandrayaan on India's Space Economy
Success of Chandrayaan will have large far-reaching implications in the economics of space for India. The requirement for low-cost space technologies remains on the increase in the boom space industry and micro satellites putting them in the perfect orbit in above space across the globe. India happens to be one of the low-cost models in the orbit presently. It has become the leader preferred by many countries and private space companies to either launch a satellite or visit space at low cost.
There is, for instance, the fact that Chandrayaan has spurred a new crop of Indian scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs who, both from within the country and outside, are keen to join the fray of India's growing space sector. International cooperation and partnership are further encouraged, as many other countries are gaining an interest in coming aboard ISRO for future space missions. India has achieved the important status of a player in space diplomacy, one that uses its technological leadership as a means of building closer international bonds.7

Conclusion: India's Journey toward Self-Reliance
The Bande Bharat Express and ISRO's Chandrayaan missions represent the "Make in India" vision of India. They indicate that the country can make its own technologies, irrespective of whether they are comparable to the best in the world or not. Moreover, they are free from foreign imports. Such success has gained popularity in terms of India's position as a competitor in transportation and space-faring missions on the world platform.
All of these projects fall into place like building blocks that will guide the Indian perspective in the future. They showcase the right investment in infrastructure, education, and research that will make India self-reliant on a global level, a leader in high-tech manufacturing, and pave the way for space exploration. The success story of Bande Bharat and Chandrayaan is just a beginning to the prosperity and bright future Indian innovation promises to be.
Why India Needs Advanced Manufacturing
The rise of China up the value chain-to make everything from consumer electronics to spacecraft-demonstrates how advanced manufacturing is a necessary tool for long-term economic growth. Advanced technologies-in areas such as aeronautics, biotechnology, and supercomputing-have avenues for wealth and global influence. Countries that are producers dominate innovation and R&D, and therefore control global supply chains. For example, the semiconductor industry is the bedrock of modern economies, from a smartphone to a satellite. India has the world's largest pool of engineers and scientists; India has the intellectual capital to establish itself in these high-tech sectors, but talent in manufacturing is grossly underutilized in the country.8
It also follows the development of expertise in complex manufacturing because of India's larger strategic objectives. A strong manufacturing base can reduce dependency on imports, particularly in critical areas such as defense and telecommunication, where dependency is a national security issue. Manufacturing also offers great avenues for job creation. While the service sector primarily creates white-collar jobs, manufacturing can absorb a more varied workforce including semi-skilled and unskilled labor, thus solving the pressing problem of unemployment in India. Some success stories in India with private sectors: Conglomerates like TATA and Mahindra: Pioneers in Sophisticated Manufacturing in India
Tata Group and Mahindra & Mahindra are two of India's major conglomerates that have greatly influenced India's industrial and economic growth by promoting sophisticated manufacturing.
Tata Group
Tata Group has been at the forefront in shaping India's manufacturing sector with its portfolio of diversified businesses. There is one flagship under the group, Tata Motors, but it is basically known for innovations in the auto industry in engineering. The acquisition of luxury brands like Jaguar and Land Rover, as well as the concept of more complex electric vehicles like the Tata Nexon EV, reflect the strong reliance of Tata on technology, as well as sustainable manufacturing processes. Tata Steel is another super giant within the group, which is renowned for its advanced production processes, which puts Tata Steel as the global leader. The investments in aerospace and defense also by Tata Group show entry into sectors that are complex and carry a high value in themselves.9
Mahindra & Mahindra: Mahindra has entrenched itself strongly in the automobile and aerospace businesses. From churning world-class SUVs to developing electric cars like eVerito, it has proved the convergence of innovation with indigenous manufacturing. Its aerospace wing, Mahindra Aerospace, operates an aircraft-making business and would be entering the high-precision engineering sector soon. Mahindra's strength lies in the integration of sustainability with advanced technology-the fact that it was betting on electric vehicles as well as eco-friendly manufacturing processes-only indicates that.
While Tata and Mahindra are changing India's manufacturing profile, it is simultaneously making the country shine on the global map as a place for complex high-tech production. Their growth is nothing but a testimony to success for India's initiative "Make in India." Their growth also forms a bench mark for the advancement of more of such intelligent manufacturing in future.
Lesson learnt by China
India has much to learn from the success in manufacturing of China. Over the past three decades, China has moved from a low-cost manufacturer of consumer goods across the world to an assembler and producer of complex, high-value products, such as semiconductors, robotics, and even aerospace technology. Factors that have propelled China's outlook include massive government investment in infrastructure, a focus on education and skill development, and policies that encourage innovation and technology transfer. Some of these strategies can thus be adopted and replicable by India.10
For example, China has invested heavily in SEZs and high-tech parks by providing tax incentives and world-class infrastructure to attract foreign companies. The Indian SEZs have fared moderately badly due to bureaucratic inefficiencies and an inadequate infrastructure system. Streamlining regulations and reducing red tape along with raising logistical support will make India's SEZs highly attractive to the global manufacturers.
China has also advocated R&D expenditure and provided big amounts of money to technological innovation. India's R&D expenditure stands at a miniscule 0.70% of GDP against China, which expends nearly 2.5%. India would have to make a quantum leap in investment in R&D by the government as well as private sectors if it needs to vie in high-tech manufacturing.11
Steps India Must Take to Grasp Its Manufacturing Opportunities
Becoming a global manufacturing hub will be the result of many overarching approaches. It includes the following areas:
1. Investment in Infrastructure: Manufacturing flourishes on efficient logistics, power, and transportation. India would need to bridge its infrastructure gaps- very much needed in rural segments-and make it easier for companies to set up and operate factories. Smart cities, good ports, and efficient rail and roads require investment.
2. Skills Development Skills will constitute the spine of high-end manufacturing. There is a great need to enhance vocational training in the country, particularly in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics education. Working with private enterprise and overseas to produce industry-specific training programmers will also be very important.
3. Innovation Hub: Along the value chain, India needs to be poised to become an innovation hub for technology. A culture of entrepreneurship must be fostered, intellectual property well protected, and substantial investment needs to be made in R&D by the government and private sector. Incubators and accelerators may be established within innovation parks to nurture start-ups working on high-tech industries.
4. Attracting Foreign Direct Investment It succeeded in attracting FDI in sectors such as e-commerce and telecom but has much work ahead for global manufacturers to attract. Policies need to be clear and stable, approvals streamlined, and incentives targeted in the right areas to make it more attractive for global companies.
5. Sustainable Development Focus: The world is shifting focus toward sustainable development, for which India can leapfrog away from traditional manufacturing practices toward 'green' technology. Focusing on clean energy and incorporating ecologically friendly manufacturing processes, India will be at a front position in sustainable manufacturing.12
India has enjoyed success in the global service sector, and now it stands at the threshold of a new era of industrial growth. By concentrating on high-end manufacturing, the country will be able to stimulate economic growth as it stands ready to occupy the number one spot in the world marketplace. The time is ripe for India to seize on these powers: youth, intellectual capital, and growing domestic market, this leap from back office in the world to becoming the factory of the world.
Proper policies, investments, and innovation will surely enable India to tread on the same path as China and climb up the global value chain. Life won't be easy for India, but economic growth, employment, and influence in the world are worth all that effort.13

MANAGEMENT CASE LET FOR MANAGEMENT STUDENTS ON BUSINESS STRATEGY.

 

Case Let: Global EV and Indian EV Manufactures.

What the Indian EV Manufactures can learn from the Global EV Manufactures:

 

Picture Courtesy: Life Style Asia.

BYD (Build Your Dreams) and Tesla appear as the biggest players when it comes to electric vehicles (EV), however, both companies thrive in totally different sphere with different business models. Yet here are their approaches, as well as factors for which BYD and other Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers could take over the world market in due course.

 

1. Cost Leadership:

 BYD: The cost advantage is what separates BYD from Tesla. BYD caters for a different base when it comes to the manufacture of its EV, producing lower cost EVs. They have a vertically closed system, which implies that they produce their batteries, microelectronics, and other relevant components that significantly cut down the expenditures. Because of this they are able to sell lower priced EVs in the market as opposed to what Tesla does.

 Tesla: However, a large majority of potential buyers of Tesla vehicles are restricted by quite high initial prices attributed to what can be defined as ‘premium positioning’. Tesla’s activity is targeting high-end models equipped with up-to-date technologies and therefore their price range is high, however, they tend to face challenges in emerging markets where affordability is the driving force.

 2. Technologies and manufacturing of batteries:

 BYD: BYD has capacity to advance battery technology. Instead, they manufacture Lithium-phosphate Blade batteries, which are low-cost and safer than other automobile manufacturers’ lithium-ion batteries. Hence, they have an advantage over the competition with respect to safety and durability.

 

Tesla: In addition, Tesla is also expanding its distribution capacity through the construction of Gigafactories worldwide, however, other issues like supply chain interruptions and bottlenecks in production persist. It is evident that most of Tesla operations focus on high-end markets where these operations may not be scalable in low-cost regions.

 3. Governmental and Market China Support:

BYD: The Chinese government has heavily invested in its home EV market through subsidies to encourage it; investment in more and more infrastructure, such as charging stations; and forcing homegrown carmakers to produce enough electric vehicles. As a result, China has become the world's largest car market by using homegrown manufacturers like BYD. Long-term Chinese government priorities continue to force local manufacturers to innovate and expand globally.

Tesla: There has been a great deal of momentum in China for Tesla, yet it seems far behind the host government's support as a foreign firm, not to mention BYD and other Chinese brands. Moreover, the competition is extremely intense because of numerous local players that are emerging.

4. Production Capacity and Scalability:

BYD: This high and large production volume in China helps BYD to manufacture the car on scale and expand rapidly. These are not merely passenger vehicles, but they are producing buses, trucks, and other commercial EVs, which makes them legitimate and strong contenders in the market.

 Tesla: The Company is expanding its operations at Gigafactories around the world but is experiencing bottlenecks because of supply chain constraints and production limitations. Tesla cars are more premium in nature and may hold fewer prospects for expansive scalability in cost-sensitive regions like India, South Asia, South East Asia and MENA.

 5. Global Expansion Strategy:

 BYD: Value Expansion. Emerging Europe, Latin America, and Asia- all new markets where BYD wants to extend its footprint. Their strategy is centered on affordability & reliable battery technology, hence are likely to perform well in emerging markets where the appetite for cheap EVs is on the rise.

 

Tesla: The latest an expansion into new territories is the, which has primarily revolved around developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe has been witnessed at Tesla evaluates its growth escapes. However, while making inroads into China and India, once Tesla has positioned, the company in the high-end market which is likely to limit Tesla’s capacity expansion in new and developing markets where price and affordability is the key factor.

 6. Product Diversification:

 BYD: Beginning from basic cars to expensive ones, BYD provides a variety of electric cars and commercial hitherto electric powered buses. This varied product approach for them facilitates penetration to different markets in the EV industry.

 Tesla: Tesla on the other side has a bit more consolidated approach to the model’s portfolio which still consists of high-end and mid-range.

They didn’t use the Mg strategy for the promising models introduction on the market, nor did they make any effort to promote lower-cost vehicles, which are actively promoted through

 BYD’s   diversity across various price brackets and types of vehicles.

 Tesla: Tesla offers a narrower product list with its vehicles classified into premium and mid-range categories. Even though they are venturing into new areas with trucks (Cyber truck) and cheaper models, the diversity available with BYD in terms of price and type of vehicles is still missing in them.

 Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturers:

BYD and Other Chinese EVs: The Chinese electric auto  manufacturers, BYD, NIO, Xpeng,  https://www.byd.com/en , https://www.nio.com/, https://www.xpeng.com/

 amongst other is relatively treading mare innovation red oceans. With some aid from the government and advanced technology coupled with cheap production mechanism they have competitive advantages at these rising economies that are very fundamental in sustaining their growth pattern. The matter such as data and affection tech specially AI in regard to vehicle highly performance also supporting expansion of user experiences are utilized to such cases therefore optimizing business value.

 There is a possibility that Chinese EVs Could Command of the Future Market:

 Chain’s massive Domestic Market with rising per capita income. The proportion of the population of China is1.4 billion has made China the largest car market, and China is further ahead in the transition to electric vehicles. Occupying the domestic a lot enables local brand EV producers to get rapid expansion and further build up their competence to a level higher than that of competitors.

 Here are three discussion-provoking questions for your management students based on the case study:

1. Cost Leadership & Competitive Positioning:
How can Indian auto manufacturers like Tata Motors Ltd. and Maruti Suzuki adopt a cost leadership strategy, just like BYD, to be competitive in the global EV market while responding to the price-sensitive Indian market?
2. Technological Innovation & Battery Development:
The following may be done by Indian manufacturers: Raise the country's battery technology, semiconductors, AI, Supply chain and production process to that of Tesla and BYD, since in India the infrastructure is scarce and so are cost-effective yet reliable batteries?
3. Global Expansion Strategy:
How would Indian automobile manufacturers differentiate their EV offerings in emerging and developed markets as they prepare for global expansions? What lessons might be drawn from BYD's own affordability-driven expansion into Latin America, Asia, and Europe and how may these lessons find reflection in the strategies of Indian EV manufacturers?

 

Percentage of agrarian economy's contribution is declining rapidly to the GDP of India.A good sign indeed..

 

To explain India's agricultural sector's role in the economy to the modern Indian, here's a structured approach:

Agriculture's Declining Share in GDP Agriculture currently contributes around 16% to India's GDP. Over the decades, this figure has declined as the economy has diversified, with sectors like services and manufacturing becoming more prominent. In the 1950s, agriculture's share in GDP was over 50%, but as India industrialized and urbanized, the economy shifted toward higher-value activities.

However, Agriculture's Importance Remains Significant Despite its declining share in GDP, agriculture remains a critical sector for several reasons:

1. Employment: It provides livelihoods to around 42% of the population, particularly in rural areas. This means a significant portion of India's workforce depends on agriculture for their income.
2. Food Security: Agriculture ensures food security, contributing to both domestic consumption and exports. India is one of the largest producers of staple crops like rice, wheat, and pulses.
3. Rural Development: Agriculture drives rural development by supporting ancillary industries like agro-processing, supply chains, and rural infrastructure. It creates demand for fertilizers, machinery, and rural services.

Shift Toward Modernization and Diversification While agriculture's share of GDP is decreasing, there are ongoing efforts to make the sector more efficient:

• Technology Adoption: The use of technology in irrigation, crop management, and mechanization has improved productivity.
• Diversification: Farmers are increasingly diversifying into horticulture, dairy, and fisheries, which are higher-value subsectors.
• Government Support: Initiatives like PM-Kisan, Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), and subsidies on fertilizers and seeds aim to support farmers.

The Larger Context of Economic Transition The decline in agriculture's share is a natural part of economic development. As economies grow, more people move from agriculture to higher productivity sectors like manufacturing and services, which offer better wages and job security. However, for India, it's important to ensure that those leaving agriculture find opportunities in other sectors, which are growing rapidly.

The real TSUNAMI is coming by 2030 with AI ,The Wall Street Journal took the expert opinion from Experts.

 

The experts Wall Street Journal have  cited outline both optimistic and cautious projections for AI’s influence by 2030, spanning various sectors. Their views reflect the transformative power of AI, but also reveal potential risks and limitations.

Optimistic predictions, such as those from Erik Brynjolfsson, Alex Singla, and Amy Webb, envision AI fundamentally reshaping industries and daily life, enhancing decision-making, automating tasks, and even making personalized healthcare more accessible. These experts suggest a future where AI seamlessly integrates into workplaces, education, healthcare, and even personal relationships, enabling faster decision-making and greater efficiency.

However, cautionary voices like Jodi Halpern, Valerie Wirtschafter, and Gary Marcus remind us of AI's potential downsides. Halpern, for instance, warns of the dangers of over-reliance on AI emotional companions, predicting negative psychological consequences. Wirtschafter’s concerns about AI-generated media influencing public perception and undermining democracy highlight ethical challenges. Marcus points out that AI’s current limitations are still significant, especially in achieving true human-like intelligence, tempering the overly optimistic forecasts.

While optimistic projections suggest AI's benefits will be ubiquitous, there remains a gap between current applications and some of the more ambitious predictions for the near future. These visions often overlook real-world challenges in AI deployment, like ethical concerns, job displacement, and technological limitations. This balance of optimism and caution underscores the importance of pragmatic approaches to AI's future development.

They are as follows according to interviews that they have given to the WALL STREET Journal.

“AI systems reached unprecedented levels of capability, reshaping industries and jobs alike. Over half the Fortune 500 vanished.” “Creative workers, professionals, writers, managers and programmers were among the most affected.” Stanford’s Erik Brynjolfsson

“We’ll see many organizations—some new, some radically transformed—with AI embedded in their structure. Every employee will access it regularly and seamlessly: to bounce ideas off it, to manage and automate tasks and to get feedback about a company’s services or products.” McKinsey’s Alex Singla

“We will each use “advanced AI agents designed to replicate and emulate our unique decision-making processes.” They will use data collected from devices we wear (earbuds, continuous glucose monitors) and use (smart toilets embedded with sensors, digital wallets) to understand our likely behaviors and act on behalf of us.” Future Today’s Amy Webb

“AI agents trained on what is highly relevant to the user, both professionally and personally, will protect us from receiving email, phone calls, texts and instant messages that aren’t of much use to us, along with automatically responding to them.” Gartner’s Erick Brethenoux

“AI tools that quickly analyze lab results and scans will help speed detection and diagnosis of conditions like cancer or heart disease. Systems that combine different types of data, like images, genetic information and medical records, will give doctors a more complete picture of a patient’s health, leading to better diagnosis and treatment.”  Wake Forest’s Metin Gurcan

“We must prepare for a future where AI’s long-term effects surpass our current imaginations of what it can do—even as its short-term influence may fall short of the most ambitious predictions.” Wharton’s Ethan Mollick

“AI will greatly enhance the capability of robots to function independently in complex environments.”  New York University’s Giuseppe Loianno

“It will be commonplace to use AI emotional companions, not just for romance, therapy and eldercare, but also to provide love and empathy for children and teens.” But, the results will be disastrous, with addiction common. Berkeley’s Jodi Halpern

“AI-generated media is likely to become only more realistic and more pervasive. Without widespread education,” “the shared reality and an informed public on which democracies so depend may be at existential risk.” Brookings’ Valerie Wirtschafter

“AI as smart as humans? Not likely.” Gary Marcus

The optimistic projections don’t build from today’s successful applications or trends and few of these experts seem to have learned from the overly optimistic forecasts over the last 15 years for hashtagAI and other .

Courtesy :https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/future-of-ai-2030-experts-654fcbfe